I’m going out on a limb to say that the future of cold-calling (and unsolicited offers in general) is pretty bleak. Which gives me great joy.
On one hand, unsolicited sales is getting cheaper, easier and (for a while) more effective- volume is going up.
On the phone front… With powerful CRM systems, companies can easily measure the success of cold calling and optimize it. Want more sales? Add more telemarketers. Run out of people to sell to? Buy a database in a new market segment. Sell to the same people again with a different pitch. With banks of low cost people who can call dozens of people per hour, you can see great success.
On the mail front… Digital printing is getting ridiculously cheap and companies have nailed the art of cost effective bulk mailing. Mailing lists are plentiful, cheap, and well targeted.
On the email front… Well, we’re all familiar with spam. And, of course, it’s pretty easy to send lightly customized emails to potential clients in a more manual way, liberally copy-pasting blocks of text.
Heck, even in the world of recruiting you see it. 15 years ago, applying for a job was a fairly careful and laborious task. You bought fancy paper, carefully crafted your resume, and often hand-delivered it. Now people can apply to dozens of jobs in an hour. Not qualified for a job? Who cares– it costs you nothing to apply. Fire and forget!
The problem with spam being so damn easy (whether it’s on the phone, in the mail, or on the intertubes) is that the volume gets high enough that sifting through these offers is no longer an effective way to spend your time. Essentially, it’s banner-blindness outside of your browser. Cold callers and marketeers are training us to flip our “ignore” switch as soon as we detect direct-marketing. So how do you know what to buy? Who to hire? Which non-profit to support? That brings us to…
Search is getting damn good, and social networking is actually getting useful
Years ago it was actually challenging to find vendors with a specific product/service. You could crack open the Yellow Pages and hunt around for the appropriate heading that you’re looking for (“Web Development – See Internet, Web Development”) and… at that point you have a list. No way to know if the vendors are good, bad, cheap, expensive, ethical or evil. You could try to network your way to a referral, but that was a bit of work, too. You could make a few calls to trusted colleagues/friends and see if they had any recommendations, but oftentimes they wouldn’t.
So, when the phone rang with a telemarketer, why the hell wouldn’t you buy from them? They’re just as good as your list of unknown vendors in the Yellow Pages. Add ‘em to the list, hear them out, get a bid/quote. Can’t hurt, right?
Nowadays, Google makes finding a vendor easy (or at least easier). Do a search, get a list. You’re done. No 40 pound book (I just dumped my Yellow Pages in my recycle bin the day after I received it- unopened). And it’s a bit more democratic– no longer is the vendor list sorted by who can buy the biggest ad, and no longer is the content controlled exclusively by the vendor. The TRUTH about the vendor (whether it’s good or bad) is becoming more readily available.
Enter social networking… With Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn answers (near as I can tell, the only useful piece of LinkedIn), I can ask ANYTHING and get trusted responses. A few months back (at my previous job) I asked on LinkedIn if people knew a good web development firm in Seattle and got about 20 responses… Many from people who I had actual relationships with. If you come up empty in your network, you can always drop in at Craigslist or Yelp and ask for recommended vendors from people who have first-hand experience working with them.
Mix it All Together and…
I just got a call from a very polite telemarketer selling technology outsourcing services. I told him I didn’t need any. He asked (as any good salesperson would) if it would be okay to follow up in a few months. I started to say, “Sure, can’t hurt”, but reconsidered. “Harry, I’ll be honest with you,” I said. “If I need your services in a month or a year, I’m going to give my business to someone that my friends and colleagues recommend. If I can’t get a recommendation, I’ll research it on the web and pick a vendor. If you want my business, my best advice would be to do great work for people in this town so that when I do start asking around, your name comes up.”
I think more and more people are thinking this way (even if they aren’t saying it). Between the deluge of marketing we’re getting bombarded with and the ease with which we can find a trusted vendor, I have high hopes that cold-calling (and Yellow Pages with it!) will meet a quiet death in the next decade or two as these tools and ideas find their way into the mainstream. If we can pull that off, then customer service (and product quality) will truly be the new marketing.
